import datetime
import logging
import math
from xonstat.models import PlayerElo
log = logging.getLogger(__name__)
class EloParms:
def __init__(self, global_K=15, initial=100, floor=100,
logdistancefactor=math.log(10)/float(400), maxlogdistance=math.log(10),
latency_trend_factor=0.2):
self.global_K = global_K
self.initial = initial
self.floor = floor
self.logdistancefactor = logdistancefactor
self.maxlogdistance = maxlogdistance
self.latency_trend_factor = latency_trend_factor
class KReduction:
def __init__(self, fulltime, mintime, minratio, games_min, games_max, games_factor):
self.fulltime = fulltime
self.mintime = mintime
self.minratio = minratio
self.games_min = games_min
self.games_max = games_max
self.games_factor = games_factor
def eval(self, mygames, mytime, matchtime):
if mytime < self.mintime:
return 0
if mytime < self.minratio * matchtime:
return 0
if mytime < self.fulltime:
k = mytime / float(self.fulltime)
else:
k = 1.0
if mygames >= self.games_max:
k *= self.games_factor
elif mygames > self.games_min:
k *= 1.0 - (1.0 - self.games_factor) * (mygames - self.games_min) / float(self.games_max - self.games_min)
return k
# parameters for K reduction
# this may be touched even if the DB already exists
KREDUCTION = KReduction(600, 120, 0.5, 0, 32, 0.2)
# parameters for chess elo
# only global_K may be touched even if the DB already exists
# we start at K=200, and fall to K=40 over the first 20 games
ELOPARMS = EloParms(global_K = 200)
class EloWIP:
"""EloWIP is a work-in-progress Elo value. It contains all of the
attributes necessary to calculate Elo deltas for a given game."""
def __init__(self, player_id, pgstat=None):
# player_id this belongs to
self.player_id = player_id
# score per second in the game
self.score_per_second = 0.0
# seconds alive during a given game
self.alivetime = 0
# current elo record
self.elo = None
# current player_game_stat record
self.pgstat = pgstat
# Elo algorithm K-factor
self.k = 0.0
# Elo points accumulator, which is not adjusted by the K-factor
self.adjustment = 0.0
# elo points delta accumulator for the game, which IS adjusted
# by the K-factor
self.elo_delta = 0.0
def should_save(self):
"""Determines if the elo and pgstat attributes of this instance should
be persisted to the database"""
return self.k > 0.0
def __repr__(self):
return "".\
format(self.player_id, self.score_per_second, self.alivetime, \
self.elo, self.pgstat, self.k, self.adjustment, self.elo_delta)
class EloProcessor:
"""EloProcessor is a container for holding all of the intermediary AND
final values used to calculate Elo deltas for all players in a given
game."""
def __init__(self, session, game, pgstats):
# game which we are processing
self.game = game
# work-in-progress values, indexed by player
self.wip = {}
# used to determine if a pgstat record is elo-eligible
def elo_eligible(pgs):
return pgs.player_id > 2 and pgs.alivetime > datetime.timedelta(seconds=0)
elostats = filter(elo_eligible, pgstats)
# only process elos for elo-eligible players
for pgstat in elostats:
self.wip[pgstat.player_id] = EloWIP(pgstat.player_id, pgstat)
# determine duration from the maximum alivetime
# of the players if the game doesn't have one
self.duration = 0
if game.duration is not None:
self.duration = game.duration.seconds
else:
self.duration = max(i.alivetime.seconds for i in elostats)
# Calculate the score_per_second and alivetime values for each player.
# Warmups may mess up the player alivetime values, so this is a
# failsafe to put the alivetime ceiling to be the game's duration.
for e in self.wip.values():
if e.pgstat.alivetime.seconds > self.duration:
e.score_per_second = e.pgstat.score/float(self.duration)
e.alivetime = self.duration
else:
e.score_per_second = e.pgstat.score/float(e.pgstat.alivetime.seconds)
e.alivetime = e.pgstat.alivetime.seconds
# Fetch current Elo values for all players. For players that don't yet
# have an Elo record, we'll give them a default one.
for e in session.query(PlayerElo).\
filter(PlayerElo.player_id.in_(self.wip.keys())).\
filter(PlayerElo.game_type_cd==game.game_type_cd).all():
self.wip[e.player_id].elo = e
for pid in self.wip.keys():
if self.wip[pid].elo is None:
self.wip[pid].elo = PlayerElo(pid, game.game_type_cd, ELOPARMS.initial)
# determine k reduction
self.wip[pid].k = KREDUCTION.eval(self.wip[pid].elo.games, self.wip[pid].alivetime,
self.duration)
# we don't process the players who have a zero K factor
self.wip = {e.player_id:e for e in self.wip.values() if e.k > 0.0}
# now actually process elos
self.process()
def scorefactor(self, si, sj):
"""Calculate the real scorefactor of the game. This is how players
actually performed, which is compared to their expected performance as
predicted by their Elo values."""
scorefactor_real = si / float(si + sj)
# duels are done traditionally - a win nets
# full points, not the score factor
if self.game.game_type_cd == 'duel':
# player i won
if scorefactor_real > 0.5:
scorefactor_real = 1.0
# player j won
elif scorefactor_real < 0.5:
scorefactor_real = 0.0
# nothing to do here for draws
return scorefactor_real
def pingfactor(self, pi, pj):
""" Calculate the ping differences between the two players, but only if both have them. """
if pi is None or pj is None or pi < 0 or pj < 0:
# default to a draw
return 0.5
else:
return float(pi)/(pi+pj)
def process(self):
"""Perform the core Elo calculation, storing the values in the "wip"
dict for passing upstream."""
if len(self.wip.keys()) < 2:
return
ep = ELOPARMS
pids = self.wip.keys()
for i in xrange(0, len(pids)):
ei = self.wip[pids[i]].elo
pi = self.wip[pids[i]].pgstat.avg_latency
for j in xrange(i+1, len(pids)):
ej = self.wip[pids[j]].elo
si = self.wip[pids[i]].score_per_second
sj = self.wip[pids[j]].score_per_second
pj = self.wip[pids[j]].pgstat.avg_latency
# normalize scores
ofs = min(0, si, sj)
si -= ofs
sj -= ofs
if si + sj == 0:
si, sj = 1, 1 # a draw
# real score factor
scorefactor_real = self.scorefactor(si, sj)
# expected score factor by elo
elodiff = min(ep.maxlogdistance, max(-ep.maxlogdistance,
(float(ei.elo) - float(ej.elo)) * ep.logdistancefactor))
scorefactor_elo = 1 / (1 + math.exp(-elodiff))
# adjust the elo prediction according to ping
ping_ratio = self.pingfactor(pi, pj)
scorefactor_ping = ep.latency_trend_factor * (0.5 - ping_ratio)
scorefactor_elo_adjusted = max(0.0, min(1.0, scorefactor_elo + scorefactor_ping))
# initial adjustment values, which we may modify with additional rules
adjustmenti = scorefactor_real - scorefactor_elo_adjusted
adjustmentj = scorefactor_elo_adjusted - scorefactor_real
# DEBUG
log.debug("(New) Player i: {0}".format(ei.player_id))
log.debug("(New) Player i's K: {0}".format(self.wip[pids[i]].k))
log.debug("(New) Player j: {0}".format(ej.player_id))
log.debug("(New) Player j's K: {0}".format(self.wip[pids[j]].k))
log.debug("(New) Ping ratio: {0}".format(ping_ratio))
log.debug("(New) Scorefactor real: {0}".format(scorefactor_real))
log.debug("(New) Scorefactor elo: {0}".format(scorefactor_elo))
log.debug("(New) Scorefactor ping: {0}".format(scorefactor_ping))
log.debug("(New) adjustment i: {0}".format(scorefactor_real - scorefactor_elo))
log.debug("(New) adjustment j: {0}".format(scorefactor_elo - scorefactor_real))
log.debug("(New) adjustment i with ping: {0}".format(adjustmenti))
log.debug("(New) adjustment j with ping: {0}\n".format(adjustmentj))
if scorefactor_elo > 0.5:
# player i is expected to win
if scorefactor_real > 0.5:
# he DID win, so he should never lose points.
adjustmenti = max(0, adjustmenti)
else:
# he lost, but let's make it continuous
# (making him lose less points in the result)
adjustmenti = (2 * scorefactor_real - 1) * scorefactor_elo
else:
# player j is expected to win
if scorefactor_real > 0.5:
# he lost, but let's make it continuous
# (making him lose less points in the result)
adjustmentj = (1 - 2 * scorefactor_real) * (1 - scorefactor_elo)
else:
# he DID win, so he should never lose points.
adjustmentj = max(0, adjustmentj)
self.wip[pids[i]].adjustment += adjustmenti
self.wip[pids[j]].adjustment += adjustmentj
for pid in pids:
w = self.wip[pid]
old_elo = float(w.elo.elo)
new_elo = max(float(w.elo.elo) + w.adjustment * w.k * ep.global_K / float(len(pids) - 1), ep.floor)
w.elo_delta = new_elo - old_elo
log.debug("{}'s Old Elo: {} New Elo: {} Delta {}"
.format(pid, old_elo, new_elo, w.elo_delta))
w.elo.elo = new_elo
w.elo.games += 1
w.elo.update_dt = datetime.datetime.utcnow()
def save(self, session):
"""Put all changed PlayerElo and PlayerGameStat instances into the
session to be updated or inserted upon commit."""
# first, save all of the player_elo values
for w in self.wip.values():
session.add(w.elo)
try:
w.pgstat.elo_delta = w.elo_delta
session.add(w.pgstat)
except:
log.debug("Unable to save Elo delta value for player_id {0}".format(w.player_id))